Last June 8, the European Parliament voted to ban the combustion engine for automotive applications as early as 2035, 5 year ahead of prior legislation. The move is in line with the Commission’s proposal for a 100% emissions cut by that year. The vote now sets the stage for negotiations with member states including France to determine the final shape of the law.
Now this does not mean that by 2035 the entire European vehicle fleet will be made of electric cars. It means that automakers will not be allowed to sell gas powered vehicles with the notable exception of series of less than 1,000 units (the Ferrari exception). With an average age of the vehicles on the road reaching 10 to 12 years on both sides of the Atlantic, and increasing year over year, we will have to wait for 2050 to have a vehicle fleet mostly made of electric (or hydrogen) cars.
This new deadline and legislation come with new challenges and opportunities for the European economies. Charging an electric vehicle today requires a minimum of 20 minutes. Long haul requirements, lack of infrastructure and peak usages (like during the summer holidays) could make the use of an electric car a nightmare. The justification of decarbonization is also open for debate. Although the electric vehicles do not emit CO2, the electricity they require to operate may come from coal or gas power plants (80% of the electricity in Poland or Germany) which in turn will emit a substantial amount of CO2. The manufacturing of the battery requires a lot of energy and correspondingly also emit significant amounts of CO2. On average, the manufacturing of a new combustion engine vehicle generates and estimated 6T of CO2 for a vehicle dimensioned for a 400 miles autonomy. In contrast, the manufacturing of an electric battery allowing a 120 miles autonomy will generate 12T of CO2. Finally on the cost side and on average, an electric vehicle is about 40% more expensive than its combustion engine equivalent. The cost of a new vehicle in terms of number of months of minimum wages has doubled in the last 10 years in France.
These challenges are going to fundamentally change the use and sale of automobiles. Demography and urbanization, aging of the population, less interest by the younger generations, rise of the ride sharing, adjustment of the infrastructure, rising costs will create the conditions for a new eco-system where the electric (or hydrogen) car will have a place. European and French companies play a central role in this transition and contribute every day to advances in the necessary technologies to complete the transformation of our economies to a greener footprint. The FACC can be your conduit to these key players in the sector.
Cédric Ballarin
