Bon 14 Juillet, Happy Bastille Day to all!
Today marks the anniversary of the Storming of the Bastille on July 14, 1789, a major event of the French Revolution, as well as the Fête de la Fédération that celebrated the unity of the French people a year later on July 14, 1790. Bastille Day is a day of celebration for all French nationals and Francophiles around the world, a day of unity around the shared values of the republic “liberté, égalité, fraternité”, liberty, equality, brotherhood.
Today may also be a day of hope and renewed confidence when it comes to economic matters. On July 1, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office presented updated macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts for the period 2021-2031. The prior forecasts, conducted in early 2021, were out of date since completed before the adoption of the American Rescue Plan and corresponding $1.9 billion stimulus plan. The CBO forecasts an average growth rate of 6.7% for the year 2021 and 3.1% in 2022. This dynamic would encourage a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.6% at the end of 2021 and to 3.6% at the end of 2022. Inflation (measured by the consumer price index) should also slow down gradually to represent 3.4% at the end of 2021 and 2.3% at the end of 2022.
Likewise the European Commission published on July 7 an interim forecast updating GDP and inflation figures for its member states. GDP growth in France is expected to reach 6.0% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022 while inflation would be maintained at respectively 1.6% and 1.2% for the same years.
These are good news although they come at the expense of an ever increasing debt level for our nations. Under the effect of large-scale budget support to the economy, public spending in the U.S. is now at 30.6% of GDP (against 21% in 2019). The budget deficit should reach 13.4% of GDP at the end of the fiscal year 2021 and the public debt peak at 102.7% of GDP in 2021 before falling back slightly to 100.3% in 2022. Numbers in France are on the same trajectory with the public debt reaching 115.7% of GDP in 2020 from 97.6% in 2019.
Let’s stay optimist and hopeful regarding these points and join the Alliances Françaises and the FACC in celebrating Bastille Day with the French community on Thursday July 15 in St Clair Shores – see invitation details below.
Cédric Ballarin
